- Proper Bankroll For Poker
- Bankroll For Video Poker
- Video Poker Bankroll Requirements
- Poker Cash Game Bankroll
- Poker Comment Monster Sa Bankroll Lyrics
- Best Poker Bankroll Offers
- Live Poker Bankroll Management
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What I'd like to know is, with any given game and it's variance, is it possible to say, with a given confidence level, that a bankroll will last over a set number of hands in a session?
Specifically, if I am playing $1 9/6 JoB, and I want to play a 4-hour session, which we will call 2,000 hands, how much do I need to say with 90% confidence that I will not run out of money before the 2,000 hands is over? I assume the variance and return need to be plugged in somewhere, I just can't seem to figure out where in a way that makes sense.. Thanks!!
It may not be what you want
Video Poker: Bankroll size vs. Risk of Ruin
Alan Krigman has a formula here
A New Formula for Video Poker
'I've developed a formula linking bankroll, bet size, spins per session, confidence you'll remain in action, and house advantage. Starting with any four of these variables, you can find the other -- provided you can use a calculator, spreadsheet, or paper and pencil to do addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division.'
Hope it helps out
added:
my values (edit)
0.90 $1062 (10% RoR)
0.95 $1203 (5% RoR)
0.99 $1346 (1% RoR)
Krigman's values
0.90 $1160 (10% RoR)
0.95 $1335 (5% RoR)
0.99 $1519 (1% RoR)
This does help!! I had seen the Wizard's RoR page, but you are correct, though helpful, was not exactly what I was looking for in this case.
The question that I still have..
Using Alan Krigman's formula, the numbers seem like they would be pretty close. For the fun of it, I compared JoB with DDB using the formula, and the bankroll requirements were surprisingly close. Since the variance on these games is quite different, would this necessarily have an affect on the result? Or is the variance simply a result of the overall EV?
He also had some 'default' numbers plugged into his formula, but I did not see in his article where he came up with those figures..
Using Alan Krigman's formula, the numbers seem like they would be pretty close.
For the fun of it, I compared JoB with DDB using the formula, and the bankroll requirements were surprisingly close.
Since the variance on these games is quite different, would this necessarily have an affect on the result? Or is the variance simply a result of the overall EV?
He also had some 'default' numbers plugged into his formula, but I did not see in his article where he came up with those figures..
B = [(R) x (W)]/[29.3 + (53.1 x E) - (22.7 x S)]
from the above photo, looks like sim results in a program
sim data is always good if it is accurate in the code and has a large enough sample size
Looks like the 22.7 could be the WagerSD
53.1 may be the nothing probability*100
29.3 ??
I need some time to see what others have and maybe just email Krigman and ask him.
He seems to use this formula, from 2000, a lot even in his later articles along with his simulation results.A trip or session bankroll RoR seems to be a commonly asked question with really no common answers.
Proper Bankroll For Poker
Most responses to Bankroll and RoR are like this.. kind of blue-skyish
'A safe bankroll for Full Pay Jacks or Better might be about three times a royal (4,000 credits times three or 12,000 credits). A safe bankroll for a Full Pay Double Bonus Poker game might be about 3.5 to 4 times a royal or 14,000 to 16,000 credits -- not a small difference'
This is where simulations can really help out
I just take $1000 when I want to put in $10k in a $ 9/6 JoB..
25 cents JOB 9/6 bankroll $1, 000.-- amount of Royal Flush
$ 1 JOB bankroll 9/6 $ 4, 000.-- amount of Royal Flush
silly
These rules of thumbs give what kind of a Risk of Ruin?
Normal distribution will be too high for a bankroll requirement as it does not consider the high positive skew.
ev: -45.61
1sd: 988
2SD (a $2K bankroll is too high by my simulations and the one posted above) should be about a 10% RoR
Looks like sim data or a proper RoR formula is the best path to take to know one's chances of lasting a certain session length. https://incharresia.tistory.com/13.
Correct.
LIFETIME BANKROLL for any denom JoB would be like 3x a royal. ($3000, $12000)
Bankroll For Video Poker
Video Poker Bankroll Requirements
However, if you can replinish your bankroll between sessions, then you only need to bring a certain amount for each session (such as me, I'll play one session a month, and bring $1000 for each session..although it EQUALS $12000 over the course of the year)Correct.
LIFETIME BANKROLL for any denom JoB would be like 3x a royal. ($3000, $12000)
Poker Cash Game Bankroll
Like that seems to be a very generalized statement and does not agree at all with the Wizard's calculations that consider Risk of Ruin.Poker Comment Monster Sa Bankroll Lyrics
The OP asked a specific trip/session Bankroll/RoR question and these rules of thumbs really do not answer his or these type of questions.
Best Poker Bankroll Offers
Live Poker Bankroll Management
The VP for Winners software looks to be a good place to start with Krigman's formula.